Posted by
Will Malven on Wednesday, January 09, 2008 8:20:06 AM
Well first, congratulations to Hillary and McCain for snookering the MSM Pollsters and exceeding expectations in winning the New Hampshire Party Primaries. Looks as though we are in for a real race this year...in both parties.
There are a couple of caveats to be considered here. First, the unique rules under which the New Hampshire Primary system works: You can move to the state one day and vote in the primaries the next. So-called independents don't have to decide to which party they are going to throw their vote until they enter the voting booth.
I believe both of these factors were very influential in what occurred last night. First the cynical aspect. There were various reports of a large influx of out cars with out of state licenses being shuttled in by Hillary Clinton to "work" on her campaign. I believe that there may have been more than a little skullduggery going on...oh, nothing illegal, as I said the rules allow for newcomers to the state to vote in the primaries, so if these "campaign workers" chose to remain and cast their ballots for Hillary, it was completely legal if somewhat questionable morally. Nothing new in ethical flexability when it comes to the Clinton political machine.
Second a more practical and predictable phenomenon...and I saw this danger approaching when the lopsided poll numbers in Obama's favor began to appear two days after the Iowa caucuses concluded...the dangers of overly high expectations for Obama being created by the MSM polling data. It was well known that both Obama and McCain were the favorites of the independant voters. They were very strongly influential in generating the poll numbers for both Barrack Obama and John McCain.
When the independant voters entered the voting booths last night, they were given a choice of voting for Obama as predicted, or for McCain. I believe that many of the independants who would normally have voted for Barrack Hussein Obama in the New Hampshire primaries, decided at the very last second that they would vote for McCain so that he would defeat Mitt Romney because Obama's victory was, in their minds, "a done deal."
In New Hampshire we have witnessed the dangers of generating too high an expectation for victory in your polling data and allowing your ego to embrace those numbers too enthusiastically.
When the results from last night's primary began trending in the direction they did, I knew that both of my scenarios were true. I believe that there was some vote stacking in key precincts by the Hillary campaign, by bringing in a large number of out of state voters to vote for her...again completely legal, if not particularly ethical, and I believe that a great many of those who would have voted for Obama under ordinary circumstances, made a last minute decision to change their vote and pick McCain, who has always had a very strong following in New Hampshire.
Neither of these factors lessens the impact of what occurred last night for both candidates, I merely offer them as an explanation...as I see it.
I would also add that I believe, being the cynic that I am, Hillary's little emotional display Monday and her little contrived, cutsy, "Well I'm hurt by that" reaction in Saturday's Democrat debate when she was told that she was not as attractive a candidate as Barrack Obama; both clear and cynical playings of the feminine card, played an important role in her surprise victory.
Hillary simply pulled another "Lazio" moment and generated a sympathy vote.
Silly me, I was hoping that New Hampshire voters would see through Hillary Clinton's "poor little me" charades, but I guess I overestimated their intelligence. I should have known better, afterall they are "undecideds." How intelligent do you have to be to not be able to see the very clear differences and flaws of each candidate well ahead of casting your vote.
I would call it a "lack of convictions" rather than "undecided" vote. As a result of all of these factors, New Hampshire wound up with an unexpectedly large "independant" vote for McCain and an unexpectedly small "undecided" turnout for Obama.
It's still a race out there folks!
Long Live Our American Republic!!!